Realtor.org – Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers issued the 30th annual Emerging Trends report predicting that recession and the current credit crunch will make 2009 a lousy year for commercial real estate and any recovery in 2010 will be weak.
The report predicts negative returns for private equity investors – the first time that’s been the case since the severe downturn in 1991 and 1992.
Economists and industry analysts interviewed for the report advised investors to hold onto their cash until prices fall. They told developers that infill projects and apartment complexes were potential bright spots.
The report identified these cities as those least and most likely to be badly affected by any commercial crunch:
Least Likely to Be Negatively Affected:
Seattle
San Francisco
Washington, D.C.
New York
Los Angeles
Houston
San Jose
Austin, Tex.
Boston
Denver
Most likely to Have Commercial Decline:
Detroit
Cleveland
New Orleans
Milwaukee
Columbus, Ohio
Pittsburgh
Las Vegas
Memphis
Cincinnati
Providence
Source: Business Week, Peter Coy (10/22/2008)