Jobs,jobs, jobs. Commercial real estate is all about jobs. And particularly the multifamily sector—after all, you can’t pay your rent if you don’t have a job.
But in this cycle, the housing market has also had an impact on multifamily fundamentals, as a favorable mortgage market led more households our of the rental pool in favor of buying. That is, until the credit crash two years ago.
In recent months, apartment fundamentals have been steadily improving, even as property segments continue to suffer. The national vacancy rate for rental multifamily buildings with five or more units, according to the US Census Bureau, has declined from 11.1% at the end of the third quarter 2009, to 10.7% at year-end 2009, to 10.6% in both the first and second quarters of this year. And the National Multi Housing Council’s Market Tightness Index, which measures vacancies and rental rate increases for apartment assets nationally, has been on a steady rise. The figure has gone from 20 in July 2009, to 31 October 2009 to 38 in January 2010, and then skyrocketed to 81 in April 2010 and 83 this past July.
So what’s behind the improvement? On one hand, the employment market is improving, albeit modestly. The national unemployment rate, as per the US Bureau of Labor Services, hovered around the 10% mark for the entire fourth quarter of last year, remained steady at 9.7% in the first three months of the year, ticked up slightly to 9.9% in April 2010 and dipped to 9.7% in May before settling in at 9.5% in both June and July.
By the numbers, there’s definitely been a bit of improvement. Anecdotally, too, the employment situation has improved. The Wall Street Journal was among a number of publications that have reported firms’ difficulty in hiring new employees for open positions, even in those markets with high unemployment. Even we are having difficulty finding a qualified candidate to fill a position that’s been open for over a month. I hear similar stories from colleagues at other companies as well.
Then again, the unemployment rate has only declined only marginally.
Another possibility is the housing market. Sure, the tax credit spurred some households to buy properties, but the mortgage market is still tight. Further, modifications have kept foreclosures at bay and housing prices have declined to such low levels that homeowners looking to sell are holding tight until conditions improve. The national homeownership rate has hit its lowest point in several quarters, 66.9% at midyear 2010. That’s a decline of 50 basis points from 12 months prior.
Again, a mere fractional decline.
So what’s spurring the improvement in multifamily? Is it jobs? Is it deteriorating fundamentals in the housing market? Both? Neither? Or have the statistics not caught up with reality yet?